Using a theater count of 3300, I'm going to go with about $45mil. Comedies seem to be doing very well this year, so, this number might actually be higher than what I'm predicting, but, for now, $45 seems to be a nice middle ground, and, I would guess this is roughly what the opening number will be at Wsex.
That seems way too low to me... Looking at past movies that are similar (Rush Hour 2, Beverly Hills Cop 2, Lethal Weapon 3, etc...) the lowest PSA you'll find is 14660 for Men In Black 2 -- and that had sneak previews during the week.
Rush Hour was a similar concept to Bad Boys, and got similar reviews... Rush Hour 2 had a whopping $22,220 PSA... It was rated PG-13, but I don't see that accounting for almost a $10k difference in PSA.
I've got this pinned around $55-$65 million opening weekend...
Rush Hour was a similar concept to Bad Boys, and got similar reviews... Rush Hour 2 had a whopping $22,220 PSA... It was rated PG-13, but I don't see that accounting for almost a $10k difference in PSA.
I've got this pinned around $55-$65 million opening weekend...
o.k. I can't resist. The origional Rush Hour made more than twice as much as Bad Boys 1 did. Rush hour: 33/141 Bad Boys: 15/65. Bad Boys did come out in 95, before Rush Hour which came out in '98, so there is an inflation difference there, and Bad Boys was released before Will Smith blew up and began his summer box office reign, but I'd still argue that Rush Hour is a more popular series than this one. Not that it's not a good comparison... Rush Hour 2 doubled RH's opening gross, but if you double Bad Boys' opening you only get 30 million so that's not going to help. I don't know, I think that I'd have to agree with JC's 45 for now, with the R rating and all, but it potentially could do 50+. Watching the trailer on the official site, I'm starting to lean towards maybe a higher number, I don't remember seeing this trailer in the theaters and it's got some cool looking elements in it that I havent' seen before, I'm wondering how many people have seen this trailer, as it's piqued my interst in this movie a bit more. Still, even with Reloaded's record smashing opening for an R rated film, 50 just feels a bit high to me for some reason.
45 million dollars is my guess for Bad Boys 2. I don't think this movie was marketed as well as the other summer blockbusters. Will Smith has some major drawing power, but I think he is on the downside of his career. MIB2 and Wild Wild West have left a bad taste in my mouth.
This year, especially this summer, has been the worst one I can remember in a long time as far as quality goes. The best movie I've seen this year has been X2 and it wasn't a barn burner. Maybe Seabiscuit will make up for all of this crap that the studios are releasing this year. I have really high hopes for that one. If not please time warp me to November/ December when Matrix3, Lotr3, The Last Samuri, and The Alamo are released. This holiday season is going to be huge as far as the box office is concerned.
Hitman
This year, especially this summer, has been the worst one I can remember in a long time as far as quality goes. The best movie I've seen this year has been X2 and it wasn't a barn burner. Maybe Seabiscuit will make up for all of this crap that the studios are releasing this year. I have really high hopes for that one. If not please time warp me to November/ December when Matrix3, Lotr3, The Last Samuri, and The Alamo are released. This holiday season is going to be huge as far as the box office is concerned.
Hitman
Damn I forgot you 2 predicted 45 million so I will change mine to 41 million. It will be intersting to see the lines on it. If Pirates drops off half that would put it at 23 million for next weekend and that is some stiff competion for Bad Boys 2 to start off with before the first bucket of popcorn is bought. I saw Pirates and it was ok but I wouldn't pay money to see it again. The word of mouth is very strong on it so I wouldn't expect more than a 50% drop.
Hitman
Hitman
I know this kind of commentary doesn't help anyone with wagers, but...
For the sake of society, I hope this movie doesn't make a dime. It looks to be quite possibly the most brain-dead action film ever. Will Smith is no longer funny, Martin Lawrence was never funny, and the sight of the two singing the theme to "Cops" is a "joke" about ten years past its expiration date.
Not even if you paid me.
For the sake of society, I hope this movie doesn't make a dime. It looks to be quite possibly the most brain-dead action film ever. Will Smith is no longer funny, Martin Lawrence was never funny, and the sight of the two singing the theme to "Cops" is a "joke" about ten years past its expiration date.
Not even if you paid me.
Sound of Silence, I agree with you on certain things that you mentioned, but, you forgot to mention certain other ones. First off, the Bad Boys series is probably dead last on the list of films you mentioned in terms of popularity. I would guess that each of those films (CERTAINLY Rush Hour) had a much larger following, with much higher anticipation.
You are also failing to realize that we are in a box office slump (with the possiblity that POTC has kicked us out of it). There have been various films that have "underperformed" like CA2, LB2, Hulk, T3. Think about the fact that you are saying that BB2 will outdo CA2, LB2 and T3 by more than $10mil. And, at the very least T3 was FAR more highly anticipated. I would say that CA2 was probably equally anticipated, maybe slightly less.
I'm not saying that it can't or won't, but, to go out on a limb and actually predict $55-$65 takes some real stones.
I will say that I would be pretty shocked if it made more than $60mil, but, as we have all seen, anything is possible.
For right now, I'm going with $45mil. I might up it or down it a little later in the week.
JP
You are also failing to realize that we are in a box office slump (with the possiblity that POTC has kicked us out of it). There have been various films that have "underperformed" like CA2, LB2, Hulk, T3. Think about the fact that you are saying that BB2 will outdo CA2, LB2 and T3 by more than $10mil. And, at the very least T3 was FAR more highly anticipated. I would say that CA2 was probably equally anticipated, maybe slightly less.
I'm not saying that it can't or won't, but, to go out on a limb and actually predict $55-$65 takes some real stones.
I will say that I would be pretty shocked if it made more than $60mil, but, as we have all seen, anything is possible.
For right now, I'm going with $45mil. I might up it or down it a little later in the week.
JP
jcambert:
Other than "The Hulk", the comparison movies you named really aren't that unbelievable to do better than. No one would really be all that shocked if Bad Boys 2 did better than Charlie's Angels 2 and Legally Blonde 2. As for T3 -- it would have likely made it in the $55-$60 million range had it not been sneak-previewed 3 days early.
Other than "The Hulk", the comparison movies you named really aren't that unbelievable to do better than. No one would really be all that shocked if Bad Boys 2 did better than Charlie's Angels 2 and Legally Blonde 2. As for T3 -- it would have likely made it in the $55-$60 million range had it not been sneak-previewed 3 days early.
You missed my point. Nobody is saying that they would be shocked if BB2 did better than them. My point was, these are all comparable movies that were expected to do better than they did. What makes BB2 any different? Surely, the Bad Boys series did NOT have a larger following than the Charlie's Angels series, or the Terminator series, so what would make you think that this film is going to annihalate those films in a down year at the box office?
JP
JP
I agree with you, Oren. It's not necessarily that I think that the film can NOT gross in the high $50's, it's just that, to predict that it will gross that, in a year which has seen CA2 gross less than $40, LB2 gross less than $30 and T3 gross less than $45, is a little leaves alot of things to be questioned. What makes BB2 any different than those other sequels? Many people will say that the other sequels actually had a larger fan base, and came with greater anticipation than this one does.
JP
JP
Something else to keep in mind. BB2 isn't even in the top ten on Moviefone.com's most requested list. That's fine, because this movie won't open for another three or four days, but, remember that POTC was in the top FIVE (not just the top ten), a full week before it ever even came out. This tells me that maybe BB2 isn't as anticipated as we might thing. I think that CERTAINLY POTC was a more anticipated film, and even POTC only averaged $14k per theater. I know it opened on Wednesday, instead of Friday, but, even if you put BB2 at $15.5k per theater, this would only leave it with $48mil, assuming an opening in the 3200 theater range.
JP
JP
